Following the launch of Apple's long-waited iPad, a number of rival products are now on their way to join the tablet computer industry. But according to market research firm iSuppli Corp, a worthy opponent is unlikely to arrive until 2011, and the iPad will maintain its leader position for at least the next two years.
In a report forecasting how the tablet market will develop in the next few years, iSuppli predicts that Apple is set to continue its domination through 2012. In 2010, 74.1 percent of global tablet shipments will go to the iPad, while the remaining 25.9 percent belongs to "a mix of older PC-type tablet products and competitive slates". Even when the real competition sets in in 2011, the iPad will still account for 70.4 percent of all shipments, and nearly two-thirds (61.7 percent) in 2012, according to the report.
The iPad market share prediction mirrors the sales forecast iSuppli released about a month ago. The company anticipates 12.9 million iPads to be sold this year. The shipments will surge to 36.5 million units next year, followed by 50.4 million units in 2012.
In the meantime, several new devices from various manufacturers are expected to land the marketplace by the end of this year. iSuppli has identified Android- and Windows 7-based tablets from HP, Dell and Lenovo as iPad competitors. Samsung is also rumored to introduce the Galaxy Tab, a tablet variant from its Android-powered Galaxy smartphones. Others include Google's Chrome OS tablet and Research in Motion's BlackPad.
However, iSuppli analysts believe the iPad won't face a serious competitor until at least next year. The research company points out the iPad is in a similar situation as the iPhone when it was launched back in 2007, which was unchallenged for almost three years until the arrival of some truly comparable smartphones, such as the Motorola DROID and the HTC EVO 4G.
"It will take some time for these companies to get their products to market, longer for them to offer necessary software support and infrastructure, and an even lengthier period to begin to rival the overall user experience Apple is able to deliver," said Rhoda Alexander, iSuppli's director of monitor research.
It would be interesting to see how they strive to develop products that can match up with the iPad. And time will ultimately tell whether Apple can maintain its ruling grip on the tablet gadget segment in the long run.
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